Weather this week: soggy and cold

By Jeff Lindner, meteorologist

David Crossley, Dec 06, 11.

First week of December will be very winter like across TX with cloudy, cold, and damp conditions expected.

Slow moving cold front has moved offshore this morning with a secondary and much stronger push of cold air currently moving through SE TX. Widespread rainfall overnight is slowly ending from W to E as the latest short wave passes off to the north this morning while snow is falling over NC TX this morning. Strong cold air advection regime will be in place today with gusty NW winds of 15-20mph and slowly falling temperatures. Given widespread clouds and light rain/drizzle most locations will remain in the 40s.

Another weak vort is progged to move across the area tonight and Tuesday and this will help maintain cloud cover and at least a slight chance of light rain and drizzle. Surface cold dome will deepen with time, but SW flow aloft combined with embedded vorts in this flow support continued weak lifting over the cold dome. Think clouds will remain with a few periods of drizzle/light rain especially near the coast and offshore tonight-Tuesday as supported by the 00Z WRF showing western Gulf of Mexico activity trying to lift back northward tonight and Tuesday. Feel most of this will remain offshore, but some may move inland. With clouds and drizzle and continue cold air advection, highs on Tuesday will likely be in the mid to upper 40s. Saturated profiles in the low level do not support significant wet bulb cooling even with drier air advection from the north, so no P-type issues are expected. When profiles do become somewhat favorable over our NW counties Tuesday night, most moisture will be well south of that area with only a trapped layer of moisture under the frontal inversion.

Main trough axis still well back to the west will sweep across the area on Wednesday and this should clear skies by late Wednesday after another cold day. Slower clearing will keep highs in the 40s again, while faster clearing might result in 50s across the region. 00Z NAM solution holds clouds tough over the region until late Wednesday afternoon and this seems reasonable. Clear skies and cold Thursday with a light freeze likely for many areas both Thursday and Friday AM. Most locations have already had their first freeze of the season, and this cold snap does not look any colder than the previous.

Bigger headaches appear Friday-next weekend as yet another trough digs into the SW US with increasing potential for south TX coastal troughing at some point next weekend. Models have been bouncing around with the intensity and placement of such a feature and there is not much better agreement today than yesterday. 00Z GFS has come in much drier for the weekend with the possible trough not taking shape until early the following week. Will likely see some sort of moisture begin to return back northward over the cold dome by Saturday with cloudy conditions likely by Sunday. Should a coastal trough/surface low form off the S TX coast then light rain/drizzle and cool/cold temperatures could be expected next weekend. Not expecting highs much above the upper 50’s Fri-Sun and if more clouds and rain develop highs could be held in the upper 40s/low 50s.

Many locations picked up another .5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours. Rainfall was fairly widespread and while much of the area remains in exceptional drought, the frequency of wetting rains has increased over the past 2 months. Hopefully we can maintain this active “wet” pattern through December and chip away at that massive rainfall deficit over the region.

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