Major slowdown in migration to outer DC suburbs

Inner burbs growing faster

Wendy Natt, Mar 24, 09.

The pattern of steady population movement from Washington DC’s inner suburbs to less expensive homes in its outer suburbs over the past decade has all but stopped, according to a story in the Washington Post.

William H. Frey, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, analyzed US Census Bureau figures released last week, which showed that Arlington County, VA grew by 3 percent between July 2007 and July 2008, compared to 1.6 percent growth between July 2006 and July 2007. Other inner counties in the Washington metro area also grew, and those that continued to lose more residents than they gained lost substantially fewer people than in previous years, according to the Brookings analysis.

Frey observed a similar trend in other metropolitan areas like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Orlando. “This is a more drastic change in U.S. migration patterns than we’ve seen in a long time, and I don’t think we’ve seen the end of it,” he said.

George Mason University economist John McClain said the estimates closely follow the housing market’s marked decline in Washington’s fringe suburbs. In Prince William, median home prices in the county plunged 41 percent between $390,000 in 2006 to $230,000 in the summer of 2007, while prices in Arlington and DC have fallen 10 and 5 percent, respectively.