Huge hits coming to 2035 RTP

$70B in projects will go

David Crossley, Jul 15, 10.

Reductions in the expected transportation revenues for the Houston region will require massive cuts in the list of projects in the 2035 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). In a discussion at the Houston-Galveston Area Council’s (H-GAC) RTP and Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP) Joint Subcommittee meeting today, staff told members that the plan will be updated soon to reflect a drop from $157 billion to less than $87 billion. Consequently, many projects will have to be cut from the plan, which by federal law must be revenue-constrained.

Staff noted that most of the projects affected are not local ones, but Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) initiatives. TxDOT’s James Koch said “about 2012, there are zero dollars for new projects.” Everything will go to maintenance, and “even at that our system is going to deteriorate.”

“Things are not going to be the same,” said TxDOT’s Rakesh Tripathi. “There’s not going to be some Houdini act to fix this.”

One of the major reasons for the decline is the increasing efficiency of cars and trucks, which means gasoline tax revenues are expected to decline. Congress and the Texas Legislature are looking for ways to change the formula and basis for collecting those revenues.

H-GAC’s new Revenue Forecast suggest two possible scenarios for additional cash to come into play. A “minimum” scenario adds $14.8 billion if some current fund diversions are ended, the motor fuel tax is indexed to 3% a year, and the vehicle registration fee is increased by $40. A “full” scenario would bring in $69.4 billion if, in addition to the minimum scenario, there is a $.35 increase to the gas tax and vehicle registration is increased by $280.

Transportation Director Alan Clark floated a basis for another scenario in which, rather than basing revenues on gas taxes, there is vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax. In his scenario, gas taxes begin to decline in about 2018 while a VMT tax shows steady growth at least until 2035.

[Author’s Note: I am a member of the RTP committee and offered several comments during the session. In response to Clark’s presentation, I noted that, as he had said, organizations concerned with sustainability and the environment are interested in VMT, because it is essential to lower the amount of driving in order to achieve carbon emission objectives, to conserve farmland and greenspace in our growing metropolitan regions, and to achieve more choices for compact, convenient communities that require less driving. But to see VMT taxes as a long-term source of increasing funding is probably not reasonable, if the tax has the effect of reducing VMT, creating the same scenario we have now with the gas tax.]

In the meantime, as Clark said later, “There’s a lot of stuff that’s not going to be in this plan.” On the other hand, the two major regional projects - just over $6 billion for the exurban Grand Parkway and the $4.8 billion expansion of highway 290 - will stay in the plan and constitute more than12% of all spending.

[Author’s Note: TxDOT has said the purpose of the Parkway is to “open areas for development,” and the 290 expansion, which goes all the way to Hockley, far past the urbanized area of the region, is presumably for the same purpose. I noted that the Transportation Policy Council 9TPC) has the job of deciding whether or not the region is going to commit huge public taxes to develop new areas that require more driving on a much bigger system at a time when TxDOT is projecting it will not be able to adequately maintain the existing system by 2012. Which direction to go with this amended plan is perhaps the most significant decision public officials will make regarding Houston’s future.]

The Transportation Policy Council will meet to consider this update and put the draft plan out for public comment on July 23. The meeting is open to the public, and citizens may speak at the beginning. It begins at 9:30 and is held at 3555 Timmons, second floor, room A. More on the 2035 RTP (although there is nothing there yet about these latest developments.)

 

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