Federal report predicts dire climate consequences

“Strongest language ever”

Steve Hawley, Jun 17, 09.

A new report released by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) predicts that climate change will dramatically affect Americans in every region, according to the New York Times. The Associated Press calls it “the strongest language on climate change ever to come out of the White House.”

In the Southeast, which in the report includes Houston and coastal Texas, average temperatures are expected to increase between 4.5 and 9 degrees Fahrenheit—and potentially 10.5 degrees during the summer—by the 2080s, causing heat stress in people, animals, and plants. Sea levels will rise and hurricanes will become more intense, leading to widespread coastal flooding from storm surges. In addition, longer dry spells and a growing population will strain local water supplies.

Elsewhere, climate change is expected to cause even worse droughts in the Southwest, heavier downpours in the Northeast, declining crop yields in most regions due to more diseases and insects, and a substantial increase in heat-related deaths. The report does not include any new research, according to the Times, but is based on existing research, including 21 reports produced by the Bush administration.

The 196-page report states that early mitigation efforts will be most effective at limiting the effects of climate change. The Times reports “Without efforts to limit emissions, the United States could warm 7 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. Cutting emissions could hold that increase to just 4 to 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit.”

Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said, “I really believe this report is a game changer.” Donald J. Wuebbles, one of the report’s authors and a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois, added, “We do need to act sooner rather than later because we want to avoid the worst of the kinds of changes that we looked at.”

The report issued ten key findings:

1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.
2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.
3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.
4. Climate change will stress water resources.
5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.
7. Risks to human health will increase.
8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.
9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.
10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.

The Houston Chronicle, Politico, Grist, and Wired Science also provide coverage of the report.

Full report: “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” (pdf, 13.0 mb)