Extreme weather is likely to increase

New IPCC report

David Crossley, Nov 22, 11.

An increase in heat waves is almost certain, while heavier rainfall, more floods, stronger cyclones, landslides, and more intense droughts are likely across the globe this century as the Earth’s climate warms, UN scientists said last week, as reported in the Insurance Journal:

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged countries to come up with disaster management plans to adapt to the growing risk of extreme weather events linked to human-induced climate change, in a report released in Uganda on Friday.

The report gives differing probabilities for extreme weather events based on future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, but the thrust is that extreme weather is likely to increase.

“It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes … will occur in the 21st century on the global scale,” the IPCC report said.

“It is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, or heat waves, will increase,” it added.

“A 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions,” under one emissions scenario.

An exception is in very high latitudes, it said. Heat waves would likely get hotter by “1 degrees C to 3 degrees C [1.8° to 5.4° F] by mid-21st century and by about 2 degrees C to 5 degrees C [3.6° to 9° F] by late-21st century, depending on region and emissions scenario.”

Delegates from nearly 200 countries will meet in South Africa from Nov. 28 for climate talks with the most likely outcome modest steps towards a broader deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions to fight climate change. MORE