Expert: US carbon emissions may have peaked in 2007

Climate legislation expected

Steve Hawley, May 15, 09.

Climate expert Joseph Romm predicts that US carbon dioxide levels peaked in 2007, he writes in Climate Progress. His predictions are based on an April report released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as well as peak oil and climate policy expected from Congress and the Obama administration.

The EIA, which Romm describes as “incredibly conservative from a forecasting perspective,” shows energy-related carbon dioxide levels dropping by 5 percent between 2007 and 2009 before slowly rebounding, not reaching 2007 levels again until 2024. The model was revised to include the effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which it predicts will lower carbon dioxide emissions slightly.

Romm points out, “Remember, EIA only models the ‘no further energy and climate policy’ case and the ‘no peak oil’ case, so the only thing one can say for certain about an EIA forecast is that there is no chance whatsoever it will come true.” The EIA model also expects the wind power tax credit to expire in 2012, which Romm finds extremely unlikely.

The EIA also does not factor peak oil into its calculations, predicting that by 2030, oil will cost $124 per barrel and gasoline will cost $3.82 per gallon in 2007 dollars.

Romm states:

I think that peak oil plus inevitably stronger and stronger action on fuel economy standards, tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions, plug in hybrid electric vehicles, and low-carbon fuel standards will keep oil consumption trends flat for quite some time, followed by a steady decline post-2020ish.

And of course I am assuming in my prediction that the United States will enact into law serious energy and climate legislation, along the lines of Waxman-Markey, sometime soon, which will lead to steadily declining coal emissions post-2015.

The proposed Waxman-Markey bill would reduce emissions 17 percent by 2020. The Environmental Protection Agency is also seeking to regulate greenhouse gases if Congress does not act.

Other experts seem to support Romm’s claims: Exxon recently indicated that it expects US gasoline consumption to drop 22 percent in the next 20 years, while analysts at Raymond James & Associates, Inc. in Houston believe that the world hit peak oil by early 2008.

However, while Romm thinks US carbon emissions may have peaked, worldwide carbon emissions are exceeding the worst-case scenario modeling performed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to researchers.