Copenhagen report: climate inaction ‘inexcusable’

Cites ‘overwhelming’ evidence

Steve Hawley, Jun 30, 09.

A new report released in preparation for December’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen indicates that the effects of climate change are already being felt and says that inaction on the part of policymakers is “inexcusable,” according to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

According to PIK, “large-scale transformational measures” will be necessary:

For example, the current planetary land-use pattern is the result of erratic historical processes. These were blind to global sustainability considerations, [Hans Joachim] Schellnhuber and Veronika Huber from PIK point out in the report. Future land-use must accommodate the demands of some nine billion people for food and fibre, energy, infrastructures and conservation – on a non-expandable global surface.

The report contains six key messages:
Climatic trends: “Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. ... With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.”

Social and environmental disruption: “Recent observations show that societies and ecosystems are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change, with poor nations and communities, ecosystem services and biodiversity particularly at risk. Temperature rises above 2°C will be difficult for contemporary societies to cope with, and are likely to cause major societal and environmental disruptions through the rest of the century and beyond.”

Long-term strategy: “Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation based on coordinated global and regional action is required to avoid “dangerous climate change” regardless of how it is defined. Weaker targets for 2020 increase the risk of serious impacts, including the crossing of tipping points, and make the task of meeting 2050 targets more difficult and costly. Setting a credible long-term price for carbon and the adoption of policies that promote energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies are central to effective mitigation.”

Equity dimensions: “Climate change is having, and will have, strongly differential effects on people within and between countries and regions, on this generation and future generations, and on human societies and the natural world. An effective, well-funded adaptation safety net is required for those people least capable of coping with climate change impacts, and equitable mitigation strategies are needed to protect the poor and most vulnerable.”

Inaction is inexcusable: “Society already has many tools and approaches – economic, technological, behavioural, and managerial – to deal effectively with the climate change challenge. If these tools are not vigorously and widely implemented, adaptation to the unavoidable climate change and the societal transformation required to decarbonise economies will not be achieved.”

Meeting the challenge: “If the societal transformation required to meet the climate change challenge is to be achieved, then a number of significant constraints must be overcome and critical opportunities seized. These include reducing inertia in social and economic systems; building on a growing public desire for governments to act on climate change; reducing activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions and reduce resilience (e.g. subsidies); and enabling the shifts from ineffective governance and weak institutions to innovative leadership in government, the private sector and civil society.”

Full report: Synthesis Report, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions (pdf, 5.6 mb)