Tom Downs

Demographics as destiny

Chairman of the North American Board of Veolia Transportation and a former president of Amtrak, Sep 13, 11.

Tagged with transit, density, demographics, urban, age

The new demographics are found in two generations deeply influenced by suburbia. First there’s the 20-30 something’s who grew up in suburbia and, like all generations, do not want what their parents wanted. The second demographic are their parents, who are now becoming empty nesters with a five-bedroom McMansions in the suburbs.

According to housing and location preference surveys, the younger crowd wants to be in the center of things — downtown. They want cafes, restaurants, entertainment, and other young people to socialize with. They want walkable communities with parks; they want bike trails; they want to bike to work; and they want transit.

At the aging boomer cutting edge, what are we interested in? For boomers, preferences split almost down the middle. Half of the 50-60 somethings want to move to a larger house in a semi rural area. They wanted to build their “Dream House”, the house they wanted all their life, but deferred it to raise their children. The other half want to move to a central urban area with a walkable, transit- accessible life style. They want easy access to shopping, food, music, art, and health care. I always thought that this split speaks volumes about my generation. I do not know what impact the great housing collapse has had on those dreams, but my guess is that they are still the same, only deferred.

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What we need to do is change the way we think about non-motorized transportation and transit. When freight railroads were reshaping America and when, later, highway building did the same, we witnessed the power of transportation to shape our economy, our cities, and our concept of mobility.

I would suggest that walking, biking and transit are about to become the next wave of transportation to shape our urban areas. And that combined, they are a new mode of transportation. Looking at the location and lifestyle preferences of Gen X and Y, as well as the preferences of aging boomers, it seems clear that a distinct advantage is going to go to urban areas that can meet that market demand. However, we are still captive to the notion that these modes are fringe, “green” and non-essential. and “soft”. A hundred years ago the automobile was considered a rich man’s toy that was unreliable and scared the horses. Change is a constant in transportation.

Full Story: Demographics as density
Source: Citiwire, September 3, 2011

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