Eric Berger

Heat watch

Science writer, Houston Chronicle, Aug 16, 11.

Tagged with climate change, drought, global warming, heat

Yeah, we broke the record for consecutive 100-degree days yesterday. Today we’re going to extend it most likely with temperatures probably topping 100 degrees across most of Harris County.

It’s amazing to think that this summer is likely going to end up being a full degree warmer than that bellwether of torrid Houston summers, 1980. A full degree might not sound like much, but averaged over an entire summer, it’s a big deal.

One record we might not break from 1980, however, is that year’s total of 100-degree days. There were 32 in 1980, and we’ve had 26 this year. During a normal year, of course, there are four 100-degree days.

As you can see in the graphic above, some cities in southeast Texas have already surpassed their records for total number of 100-degree days this year.

So is the heat ever going to break?

Here’s an updated look at the near and longer-term forecast, in which Fred Schmude of ImpactWeather does see some signs of eventual relief:

Mostly dry conditions will unfortunately build back over the region through the middle of the week as upper level high pressure strengthens back over the region. Temperatures through Wednesday are forecast to range from 100 to 103 degrees over northern and western Harris County to 98 to 101 over southern and eastern parts of the county.

We will mention a slight chance for mainly afternoon showers and storms on Thursday through at least Saturday as weak disturbances rotate around the strong upper high and interact with daytime heating. Temperatures during this time frame may cool down just a little, but still remain very hot and average from 98 to 101 over the northern and western part of Harris County to 96 to 99 over the southern and eastern part of the county.

The outlook is still calling for a significant pattern change during the last week of August as the large upper high pivots out of the region. Such a shift could result in a better chance of rain during the last week of August with more seasonal temperatures back into the low to mid 90s. We will have a much better idea over the next week if such a pattern change will occur.

For now we are gaining some confidence that a pattern change may occur by the end of the month based largely on computer model trends.

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