Andrew Revkin

Growth x drought = fire

Writer, Dot Earth blog, NY Times, Sep 07, 11.

Tagged with growth, drought, fire, heat, wildfire

The stunning scope of the damage from the wildfires (and the set fires) sweeping a Connecticut-size area in Texas (live map) is partly a result of extreme drought, but also a function of the extraordinary growth in populations and suburban development in parts of the state in the last half century.*

People working to limit losses from inevitable disasters gauge the scope of risk using a rough formula (more sophisticated versions are discussed below):

Hazard x Vulnerability [ x Exposure ] = Risk -> Impact
Bastrop County near Austin — the site of the biggest fire, and most extensive damage — is a case in point. The population of the county has quadrupled since 1970, as I showed in the graph I made from U.S. Census data and posted on my revkin.tumblr.com site on Monday night:

Go to Google Maps to see how this has resulted in a sprawling array of neighborhoods interlaced with forested tracts. MORE

Given that wildfires are an implicit hazard in Texas, that projections of more intense summer heat from greenhouse-driven warming are robust and that populations are not likely to shrink any time soon, it would make enormous sense to see fire codes and other standards there reexamined to limit the chances of wildfire jumping into densely populated neighborhoods.

The same issues have arisen in other areas where recent construction booms have enormously boosted fire risk.

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